Dayton/Miami Valley PMI Chapter Presents Project Award at Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT)
Posted by webmaster on Apr. 20, 2026 / Subscribe 0
The Dayton Chapter of the Project Management Institute is proud to announce 1st Lt. Tevin Miller as the recipient of the Dr. Martin and Dr. John Adams Thesis Award. This award is presented annually to a graduate of the Uniters States Air Force Institute to recognize excellence in project management. The PMI Chapter is honored to be a partner with AFIT as part of its Outreach Program to promote the application of Project Management Principles in all areas. The award is granted to the graduate who demonstrates the superior application of project management principles via a research thesis.
At AFIT, these theses analyze complex, universal project management challenges that cut across military, government, academia, and private enterprise. Research topics may explore optimizing global supply chain resilience, accelerating the transition from research and development to commercial implementation, managing high-risk digital transformations, or pioneering agile leadership strategies in large-scale organizations. This body of work provides far-reaching value, bridging the gap between rigorous academic theory and practical, mission-critical execution applicable in any sector. Kevin’s thesis title: Defense Aircraft Systems Planning: An Analysis of Planned Quantities with Implications on Schedule and Unit Cost.
Tevin's research provides a quantitative analysis of how changes in planned procurement quantities impact the schedule and cost of major defense aircraft acquisition programs. Using data from decades of Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs), the study moves beyond the general understanding that "scope" is problematic by systematically examining the relationships between the frequency, magnitude, direction, and timing of quantity changes and their correlation with program duration and unit cost growth. The central goal was to provide empirical evidence to inform project planning and trade-off decisions, addressing a gap where quantity changes were often noted but not
deeply analyzed as a distinct variable in project outcomes.
The study's findings offer significant, data-driven contributions to the field of project management. It demonstrates a strong statistical link between quantity changes and negative project outcomes, a core concern in PMI's knowledge areas of Scope, Schedule, and Cost Management. The research quantifies that each significant quantity reduction (a scope change of 5% or more) is associated with an average program schedule delay of approximately 27 months. Furthermore, it reveals that the direction of the change is a critical risk indicator; programs with negative quantity changes are up to seven times more likely to experience major unit cost growth (over 40%) than programs without such changes. This provides project managers with powerful, evidence-based data to assess the risks associated with proposed scope reductions.
From a practical project management perspective, this thesis equips program managers with a more nuanced framework for risk management and stakeholder communication. The findings highlight that not all scope changes are equal; quantity reductions, especially those occurring later in the project lifecycle (after Milestone C), have a disproportionately strong association with cost overruns. This insight allows project managers to more accurately flag specific changes such as high-risk events and to better justify the need for stable requirements to stakeholders. By quantifying the likely impact of quantity adjustments on schedule and cost, the research provides an empirical foundation for making informed trade-off decisions, reinforcing the PMI principle of integrated change control and realistic planning.
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